To Bitcoin or to not Bitcoin? A Company Money Query!

    On this put up, I’ll carry collectively two disparate and really completely different matters that I’ve written about up to now. The primary is the position that money holdings play in a enterprise, an extension of the dividend coverage query, with an examination of why companies usually mustn’t pay out what they’ve out there to shareholders. In my courses and writing on company finance, I take a look at the motives for companies retaining money, in addition to how a lot money is an excessive amount of money. The second is bitcoin, which might be seen as both a foreign money or a collectible, and in a collection of posts, I argued that bitcoin can solely be priced, not valued, making debates about whether or not to purchase or to not purchase solely a perform of notion. Actually, I’ve steered away from saying a lot about bitcoin in recent times, although I did point out it in my put up on different investments as a collectible (like gold) that may be added to the selection combine. Whereas there could also be little that seemingly connects the 2 matters (money and bitcoin), I used to be drawn to jot down this put up due to a debate that appears to be heating up on whether or not firms ought to put some or a big portion of their money balances into bitcoin, with the success of MicroStrategy, a high-profile beneficiary of this motion, driving a few of this push. I consider that it’s a horrible concept for many firms, and earlier than Bitcoin believers get riled up, my reasoning has completely nothing to do with what I consider bitcoin as an funding and extra to do with how little I belief company managers to time trades proper. That stated, I do see a small subset of firms, the place the holding bitcoin technique is sensible, so long as there are guardrails on disclosure and governance.

Money in a Going Concern

    In a world the place companies can increase capital (fairness or debt) at honest costs and in a well timed method, there may be no need to carry money, however that’s not the world we dwell in. For quite a lot of causes, some inner and a few exterior, firms are sometimes unable or unwilling to boost capital from markets, and with that constraint in place, it’s logical to carry money to fulfill unexpected wants. On this part, I’ll begin by laying out the position that money holdings play in any enterprise, and study how a lot money is held by firms, damaged down by groupings (regional, dimension, trade). 

A Monetary Stability Sheet

    To know the place of money in a enterprise, I’ll begin with a  monetary stability sheet, a construction for breaking down a enterprise, public or non-public:

On the asset aspect of the stability sheet, you begin with the working enterprise or companies that an organization is in, with a bifurcation of worth into worth from investments already made (assets-in-place) and worth from investments that the corporate expects to make sooner or later (progress belongings). The second asset grouping, non-operating belongings, features a vary of investments that an organization might make, generally to reinforce its core companies (strategic investments), and generally as aspect investments, and thus embrace minority holdings in different firms (cross holdings) and even investments in monetary belongings. Typically, as is the case with household group firms, these cross holdings could also be a mirrored image of the corporate’s historical past as a part of the group, with investments in different group firms for both capital or company management causes. The third grouping is for money and marketable securities, and that is meant particularly for investments that share two widespread traits – they’re riskless or near riskless insofar as holding their worth over time and they’re liquid within the sense that they are often transformed to money shortly and with no penalty. For many firms, this has meant investing money in short-term bonds or payments, issued by both governments (assuming that they’ve little default danger) or by giant, secure firms (within the type of business paper issued by extremely rated companies). 

    Notice that there are two sources of capital for any enterprise, debt or fairness, and in assessing how levered a agency is, traders take a look at the proportion of the capital that comes from every:

• Debt to Fairness = Debt/ Fairness
• Debt to Capital = Debt/ (Debt + Fairness)

Actually, there are lots of analysts and traders who estimate these debt ratios, utilizing web debt, the place they internet the money holdings of an organization towards the debt, with the rationale, merited or not, that money can be utilized to pay down debt.

• Web Debt to Fairness = (Debt-Money)/ Fairness
• Debt to Capital = (Debt-Money)/ (Debt + Fairness)

All of those ratios might be computed utilizing accounting e book worth numbers for debt and fairness or with market worth numbers for each. 

The Motives for holding Money

    In my introductory finance courses, there was little dialogue of money holdings in firms, outdoors of the periods on working capital. In these periods, money was launched as a lubricant for companies, essential for day-to-day operations. Thus, a retail retailer that had scores of money prospects, it was argued, wanted to carry more money, usually within the type of foreign money, to fulfill its transactional wants, than an organization with company suppliers and enterprise prospects, with predictable patterns in operations. Actually, there have been guidelines of thumb that had been developed on how a lot money an organization wanted to have for its operations. Because the world shifts away from money to digital and on-line funds, this want for money has decreased, however clearly not disappeared. The one carve out is the monetary providers sector, the place the character of the enterprise (banking, buying and selling, brokerage) requires firms within the sector to carry money and marketable securities as a part of their working companies.

    If the one purpose for holding money was to cowl working wants, there can be no approach to justify the tens of billions of {dollars} that many firms maintain; Apple alone has usually had money balances that exceeded $200 billion, and the opposite tech giants will not be far behind. For some firms, a minimum of, the rationale for holding far more money than justified by their working wants is that it might function as a shock absorber, one thing that they’ll fall again on in periods of disaster or to cowl sudden bills. That’s the reason that cyclical and commodity companies have usually supplied for holding giant money balances (as a p.c of their total agency worth), since a recession or a commodity value downturn can shortly flip income to losses.

   Utilizing the company life cycle construction also can present perception into how the motives for holding money can change as an organization ages.  

For start-ups, which might be both pre-revenue or have very low revenues, money is required to maintain the enterprise working, since staff need to be paid and bills lined. Younger companies which might be money-losing and with giant unfavourable money flows, maintain money to cowl future money circulate wants and to fend off the danger of failure. In impact, these companies are utilizing money as life preservers, the place they’ll make it via intervals the place exterior capital (enterprise capital, particularly) dries up, with out having to promote their progress potential at cut price basement costs. As companies begin to earn a living, and enter excessive progress, money has use as a enterprise scalar, for companies that need to scale up shortly. In mature progress, money acquires optionality, helpful in permitting the enterprise to seek out new markets for its merchandise or product extensions.  Mature companies generally maintain money as youth serum, hoping that  it may be used to make once-in-a-lifetime investments that will take them again to their progress days, and for declining companies, money turns into a liquidation supervisor, permitting for the orderly compensation of debt and sale of belongings.

    There’s a remaining rationale for holding money that’s rooted in company governance and the management and energy that comes from holding money. I’ve lengthy argued that absent strain from shareholders, managers at most publicly traded companies would select to return little or no of the money that they generate, since that money stability not solely makes them extra wanted (by bankers and consultants who’re endlessly creative about makes use of that the money might be put to) but in addition offers them the ability to construct company empires and create private legacies.

Company Money Holdings

    Given the multitude of causes for holding money, it ought to come as no shock that publicly traded firms around the globe have important money balances. Main into July 2025, for example, international non-financial-service companies held virtually $11.4 trillion in money and marketable securities; monetary service companies held much more in money and marketable securities, however these holdings, as we famous earlier, can signify their enterprise wants. Utilizing our earlier breakdown of the asset aspect of the stability sheet into money, non-operating and working belongings, that is what non-financial service companies within the mixture appeared like in e book worth phrases (international and simply US companies):

Notice that money is about 11% of the e book worth of complete belongings, within the mixture, for international companies, and about 9% of the e book worth of complete belongings, for US companies. World companies do maintain the next proportion of their worth in non-operating belongings, however US companies are extra lively on the acquisition entrance, explaining why goodwill (which is triggered virtually solely by acquisitions) is larger at US companies.

    The everyday publicly traded agency holds a big money stability, however there are important variations in money holdings, by sector. Within the desk beneath, I take a look at money as a p.c of complete belongings, a e book worth measure, in addition to money as a p.c of agency worth, computed by aggregating market values:

As you possibly can see, know-how companies, which presumably face extra uncertainty about their future maintain far more money as a p.c of e book worth, however the worth that the market attaches to their progress brings down money as a p.c of agency worth. Utilities, regulated and infrequently steady companies, have a tendency to carry the least money, each in e book and market phrases. 

    Breaking down the pattern by area, I take a look at money holdings, as a p.c of complete belongings and companies, throughout the globe:

The variations throughout the globe might be defined by a mixture of market entry, with international locations in elements of the world the place it may be tough to entry capital (Latin America, Jap Europe, Africa) holding more money. As well as, and company governance, with money holdings being larger in elements of the world (China, Russia) the place shareholders have much less energy over managers. 

    Given the sooner dialogue of how the motives for holding money can fluctuate throughout the life cycle, I broke the pattern down by age decile, with age measured from the yr of founding, and checked out money holdings, by decile:

The outcomes are combined, with money holdings as a p.c of complete belongings being greater for the youthful half of the pattern (the highest 5 deciles) than for the older half, however the is not any discernible sample, when money is measured as a p.c of agency worth (market). Put easy, firms throughout the life cycle maintain money, although with completely different motives, with the youngest companies holding on to money as lifesavers (and for survival) and the older companies maintaining money within the hopes that they’ll use it to rediscover their youth.

The Magic of Bitcoin

    I’ve been educating and dealing with investments now for 4 a long time, and there was no funding that has obtained as a lot consideration from each traders and the monetary press, relative to its precise worth, as has bitcoin. A few of the draw has come from its connections to the digital age, however a lot of it has come from its speedy rise in value that has made many wealthy, with intermittent collapses which have made simply as many poor. I’m a novice with regards to crypto, and whereas I’ve been open about the truth that it isn’t my funding choice, I perceive its draw, particularly for youthful traders.

The Brief, Eventful Historical past of Bitcoin

    The origin story for Bitcoin issues because it helps us perceive each its attraction and its construction. It was born in November 2008, two months into one of many worst monetary crises of the final century, with banks and governments seen as largely answerable for the mess. Not surprisingly, Bitcoin was constructed on the presumption that you simply can’t belief these establishments, and its largest innovation was the blockchain, designed as a manner of crowd-checking transactions and preserving transaction integrity. I’ve lengthy described Bitcoin as a foreign money designed by the paranoid for the paranoid, and I’ve by no means meant that as a critique, since within the  untrustworthy world that we dwell in, paranoia is a justifiable posture.

    From its humble beginnings, the place only some (largely tech geeks) had been conscious of its existence, Bitcoin has collected evangelists, who argue that it’s the foreign money of the long run, and speculators who’ve used its wild value swings to make and lose tens of thousands and thousands of {dollars}. Within the chart beneath, I take a look at the value of bitcoin during the last decade, as its value has elevated from lower than $400 in September 2014 to greater than $110,000 in June 2025:

Alongside the way in which, Bitcoin has additionally discovered some acceptance as a foreign money, first for unlawful actions (medication on the Silk Street) after which because the foreign money for international locations with failed fiat currencies (like El Salvador), however even Bitcoin advocates will agree that its use in transactions (because the medium of change) has not saved tempo with its progress as a speculative commerce. 

Pricing Bitcoin

    In a put up in 2017,  I divided investments into 4 teams – belongings that generate money flows (shares, bonds, non-public companies), commodities that can be utilized to supply different items  (oil, iron ore and so forth), currencies that act as mediums of change and shops of worth and collectibles which might be priced based mostly on demand and provide:

Chances are you’ll disagree with my categorization, and there are shades of grey, the place an funding might be in multiple grouping. Gold, for example, is each a collectible of lengthy standing and a commodity that has particular makes use of, however the former dominates the latter, with regards to pricing. In the identical vein, crypto has a various array of gamers, with just a few assembly the asset take a look at and a few (like ethereum) having commodity options. The distinction between the completely different funding courses additionally permits for a distinction between investing, the place you purchase (promote) an funding whether it is underneath (over) valued, and buying and selling, the place you purchase (promote) an funding for those who anticipate its value to go up (down). The previous is a selection, although not a requirement, with an asset (shares, bonds or non-public companies), although there could also be others who nonetheless commerce that asset. With currencies and collectibles, you possibly can solely commerce, making judgments on value route, which, in flip, requires assessments of temper and momentum, moderately than fundamentals. 

    With bitcoin, this classification permits us to chop via the various distractions that pop up throughout discussions of its pricing degree, since it may be framed both as a foreign money or a collectible, and thus solely priced, not valued. Seventeen years into its existence, Bitcoin has struggled on the foreign money entrance, and whereas there are pockets the place it has gained acceptance, its design makes it inefficient and its volatility has impeded its adoption as a medium of change. As a collectible, Bitcoin begins with the benefit of shortage, restricted as it’s to 21 million items, however it has not fairly measured up, a minimum of thus far, with regards to holding its worth (or rising it) when monetary belongings are in meltdown mode. In each disaster since 2008, Bitcoin has behaved extra like dangerous inventory, falling way over the typical inventory, when shares are down, and rising extra, once they get well. I famous this in my posts wanting on the efficiency of investments in each the primary quarter of 2020, when COVID laid waste to markets, and in 2022, when inflation ravaged inventory and bond markets. That stated, it’s nonetheless early in its life, and it’s solely potential that it might change its habits because it matures and attracts in a wider investor base. The underside line is that discussions of whether or not Bitcoin is affordable or costly are sometimes pointless and generally irritating, because it relies upon virtually solely in your perspective on how the demand for Bitcoin will shift over time. For those who consider that its attraction will fade, and that it will likely be displaced by different collectibles, even perhaps within the crypto house, you’ll be within the brief promoting camp. In case you are satisfied that its attraction is not going to simply endure but in addition attain contemporary segments of the market, you might be on stable floor in assuming that its value will proceed to rise. It behooves each teams to confess that neither has a monopoly on the reality, and it is a disagreement about buying and selling and never an argument about fundamentals.